How can God redeem America’s declining birth rates?

For many people, the issue of birth rates and population decline came to their attention in response to a 2021 clip of Republican Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance referring to several prominent Democrats as “childless cat ladies.” Still, despite the circumstances, it’s been good to see this topic gain more attention in recent weeks. While there is no shortage of potential issues in need of addressing throughout our culture and government today, the “birth dearth,” as columnist Ross Douthat calls it, is among the most alarming and potentially catastrophic for the future of the country. 

Yet, it’s hardly a problem that is unique to America. 

Fertility rates in more than half of all countries and territories around the world are currently below replacement level. That level is typically defined as 2.1 children per woman, which is seen as the rate necessary to ensure that the population increases. While there is room to dispute precisely how that number is calculated, generally speaking, most of the nations experiencing that decline are so far below the level that the problem is abundantly clear—or at least it should be.

Yet, despite the falling rates, this issue is not mentioned very often when considering the struggles currently facing our society. As Douthat points out, part of the reason is that there is often an understandable desire in our culture to keep private matters separate from public life. After all, we don’t want the government telling people how many kids they can or should have. That sort of dystopian interference runs directly counter to the core impulses that undergird much of our society.

Still, just because a conversation feels awkward doesn’t mean it’s not worth having. And that is especially true when the subject is of vital importance. 

What is pronatalism?

In her article on the subject, Rachel Cohen defined pronatalism as a “broad ideological movement driven by concern that the world is not producing enough children and that society should work to change that.” While some may quibble with some facets of that definition, broadly speaking, it gets at the heart of the matter. And it’s helpful to note that there are both proponents and detractors of this ideology across the political spectrum. 

As Cohen goes on to note, “People with different backgrounds and ideologies are concerned about what a shrinking population will mean for future generations.” Consequently, the recognition that a problem exists can truly be a bipartisan issue. And you don’t have to look very hard to see why. 

For example, by most measures, the job market in America is currently short by roughly 1.7 million workers. Given that it takes roughly two decades for a baby to grow and develop to the point that he or she can fill that gap, the consequences of falling behind could be severe. However, it appears that’s already happened. 

You see, the problem with population decline is that you often don’t begin to feel the full effects of a declining birth rate until the issue has already grown impossibly difficult to address. Or at least that’s how it can feel. And that sense is only exacerbated when you see how relatively ineffective a variety of attempted fixes have proven to be. 

Ideally, nations would try simply not killing the babies they conceive—adding the number of aborted children to the general population would go a long way toward solving this issue. However, that does not seem likely to happen any time soon. As such, we are likely to need alternative solutions, and some countries have grown increasingly desperate in their attempts.

In Russia, for example, the government gave families with more than two kids the equivalent of $7,000. Hungary has offered newlyweds $30,000 loans that can be forgiven if the couple has three kids. A host of other countries have tried investing in social programs and passing laws intended to make it easier for families to have and provide for multiple children. 

However, none of these programs have proven to provide sufficient motivation to address the issue. They can help and their inability to fix the whole problem does not mean such ideas can’t be part of the solution, but the core problem clearly goes deeper than finances.

Why more people choose not to have kids

While money is typically cited as a reason why people choose not to have children, a recent study found that the most common explanation is that they simply did not want them, with the desire to focus on their career or other interests coming in second. Even those who do want to have children are often waiting much longer to start than in the past, which limits not only how many kids they can have but can also increase the difficulties and risks associated with pregnancy. 

Now, at this point, I need to stop and say that judgment, condemnation, or any sense of superiority should have no place in the way we—as individuals and as a culture—respond to those who choose not to have children. But a basic acceptance and validation of that decision, apart from any conversation about why they have chosen that path, is also not necessarily for the best. 

At the end of the day, the numbers are what they are, and ignoring that reality is neither compassionate nor wise. 

So, how should we respond? 

Give God a say

We must start by acknowledging that the choice of whether or not to have children and how many are between the individuals involved and the Lord. And while those conversations can take many forms, remembering to include the Lord is essential. And there is no universally correct number for every person or every situation. 

Many people get into trouble, however, when they allow personal ambitions, fears, or other emotions that don’t come from God to crowd out his voice and make that decision for them.

One way we can help on a societal level is to advocate for policies that make it easier for people to raise their kids. Creating a better life for future generations should not be a partisan issue, and it’s been encouraging to see people on both sides of the aisle at least acknowledge that fact, even if disagreements persist on the proper way forward. 

On a more personal level, though, pray through what you and your church can do to help make that process easier for families. Ask God if you should volunteer to work with the kids on Sundays. Look into what it would take to create or help provide food and clothes for families in need. See if your congregation can offer the occasional date night where parents can drop their kids off and trust that they’ll be well taken care of by the church.

Guidance from the early church

At the end of the day, the broader societal issues associated with the declining birth rate in America and much of the world can feel daunting. Moreover, many of the proposed answers can seem utopian or overreactionary in light of all the other problems our society faces. 

That’s why Douthat worries we’ve reached the point where “normal people finally wake up to the problem, only to decide that the solutions look impossible and fall back into fatalism or denial or despair.”

Yet, even if that’s the case on a societal level, such responses should have no place among God’s people. After all, it wouldn’t be the first time he’s been able to use a declining population to expand his kingdom. 

Ancient Rome dealt with similar issues due to declining birth rates. As a result, one of the primary reasons that the early church grew so quickly was by simply having more children than the culture around them. Eventually, their growing numbers led to growing influence throughout the Empire, and the same could be true here as well. 

So, while the declining numbers are cause for concern, they should never be cause for despair. Instead, we should respond with faith in God’s ability to redeem our circumstances and a commitment to do our part in his redemption plan, whatever that part may be.

Let’s start today.